Illuvium Co-Founder Predicts P2E Revival

Play-to-earn (P2E) gaming could be heading for another boom, and Illuvium co-founder Kieran Warwick believes artificial intelligence (AI) might make it happen much faster than expected. Surprisingly, the prediction comes from someone who previously described the model as unsustainable and compared it to a Ponzi scheme.

In a lengthy post on X, Warwick explained why the economics of crypto gaming may be changing. His argument is not that play-to-earn has suddenly become sustainable. Instead, AI tools could make game development so cheap and fast that even short-lived games with aggressive token rewards become commercially attractive.

If his prediction proves correct, the next wave of P2E games could bring fresh attention to the entire crypto gaming industry, potentially benefiting established projects like Illuvium. However, the same trend could also expose players to significant financial risks.

Kieran Warwick Changes His Stance on Play-to-Earn

Warwick's comments stand out because of his previous criticism of play-to-earn. During the last crypto gaming cycle, he openly opposed the model, arguing that its economic structure was unsustainable.

His concerns have not disappeared. What has changed, in his view, is the cost of creating games.

Traditional game development can require months or years of work, substantial funding, and ongoing support. Building a game around an economy that might collapse within days would rarely make sense under those conditions.

AI is changing that calculation. If developers can create playable experiences in a week, they may no longer need a game to survive for years to justify the investment.

Warwick believes this shift could revive a controversial corner of the industry that many players and developers thought had already peaked.

What DeFi Summer Taught Crypto Gaming

To explain his prediction, Warwick looks back at DeFi Summer, when decentralized finance projects used token incentives and high annual percentage yields (APYs) to attract liquidity.

The strategy created intense competition. Users rushed between opportunities, looking for the highest returns before rewards declined or token prices fell. In many cases, the excitement lasted only hours or days.

Warwick sees similarities between that behavior and the original play-to-earn boom. Both models can attract participants through financial incentives, with early arrivals potentially benefiting more than those who join later.

He describes the dynamic as gambling with a small element of skill. Participants must decide when to enter, how long to stay, and when to exit.

His broader argument is that crypto already has mechanisms capable of turning financial speculation into a competitive activity. Adding an actual game around those incentives could make the experience more accessible and entertaining, even if the underlying economics remain risky.

How AI Could Make Short-Lived Games Profitable

The biggest change is the potential reduction in development time and cost.

Previously, a studio might spend a year creating a P2E game, only to discover that its reward system attracted players for a single week. Developers therefore had strong incentives to build sustainable economies, retain users, and create lasting demand for their tokens.

AI-assisted development could remove some of that pressure.

According to Warwick, a developer who builds a simple game in a week may be perfectly comfortable with a seven-day lifecycle. If the project attracts enough players, generates revenue, or creates profitable opportunities during that period, the experiment might already be worthwhile.

The model he anticipates combines several elements:

• High token emissions: Large rewards attract players looking for quick returns.

• Simple gameplay: Games are inexpensive and fast to produce.

• Easy accessibility: Browser and mobile versions reduce barriers to entry.

• Short lifecycles: Developers can move on when interest and rewards decline.

• Rapid iteration: AI tools help teams develop and test their next projects.

This approach could encourage a cycle of launching, attracting attention, distributing rewards, and moving on to the next game. However, cheap development does not automatically make a token economy sustainable or guarantee that players will earn money.

Grow a Garden Shows the Power of Simple Games

Warwick points to Roblox's Grow a Garden as an example of how quickly a relatively simple game can attract a massive audience.

The game's first version was reportedly created by a 16-year-old in just a few days before it was acquired by Splitting Point Studios. In June 2025, it reached approximately 21.6 million concurrent players, surpassing Fortnite's previous record of around 15.2 million.

Warwick also cited reports that the game generated approximately $12 million in revenue in a single month.

The example illustrates how simple gameplay, social interaction, and viral discovery can produce extraordinary results without requiring a traditional blockbuster development cycle.

Thousands of Roblox creators also use AI tools to assist with planning, development, and testing. Warwick believes combining these capabilities with crypto token incentives could create a new generation of rapidly launched P2E games.

However, Roblox's success does not prove that token-based games will achieve similar results. Its example demonstrates the potential of rapid development and viral growth, not a guarantee of profitable play-to-earn economies.

Why Illuvium Could Benefit From a P2E Revival

At first glance, a wave of short-lived farming games might seem like bad news for a project that has spent years developing a more ambitious gaming ecosystem.

Warwick sees things differently.

He argues that renewed interest in play-to-earn could bring crypto gaming back into mainstream crypto discussions. As players return and capital flows into the sector, established gaming tokens could receive additional attention.

Some newcomers might also move beyond quick-reward games and discover more substantial experiences.

That is where Illuvium enters the picture.

The project is a collection of interconnected Web3 games built around Illuvials, collectible creatures that players can capture, upgrade, and use in battles. Its experiences include Illuvium: Arena, a competitive auto battler, and Illuvium: Overworld, an open-world adventure focused on exploration and collecting Illuvials.

Rather than relying exclusively on short-term incentives, Illuvium aims to build a recognizable game universe with deeper gameplay systems.

Warwick acknowledges that attracting attention is only the first step. The real challenge will be converting curious players into long-term community members who continue playing after the initial excitement fades.

Illuvium Continues Development Despite Market Pressure

The project has faced difficult conditions during the broader crypto gaming downturn.

In August 2026, Warwick said the team had agreed to reduce wages again to extend its financial runway beyond 12 months. At the time, the protocol was reportedly generating less than $10,000 per month, while the remaining team focused primarily on the Overworld MMO.

Nevertheless, development and community activities have continued.

Illuvium: Arena version 1.18.8 launched on October 7, 2026, introducing the Abyssal Chasm Event Pass, scheduled to end on October 27. The game is also hosting Illuvium Challengers Series #2, with its finals scheduled for October 25.

Meanwhile, nominations for five Illuvium Main Council seats remain open until October 27, followed by voting from October 27 to October 31. Warwick was elected to the council during the previous Epoch 11 election.

These developments highlight the contrast between Illuvium's long-term ambitions and the rapid, short-lived projects Warwick expects AI to enable.

The Risks Behind the Next Play-to-Earn Boom

Warwick is not presenting the potential P2E revival as a guaranteed opportunity to make money. He explicitly warns that many participants could lose.

That warning deserves attention because high token emissions can create temporary excitement while putting downward pressure on token prices. When rewards exceed sustainable demand, the value of those rewards can decline rapidly.

Players may also spend money on tokens, NFTs, or other assets that become difficult to sell once interest disappears. In short-lived games, late arrivals could face particularly unfavorable conditions if early participants exit first.

Before joining a new P2E project, players should consider:

• Whether token demand comes from actual gameplay or mainly from new participants.

• How rewards are funded and whether token emissions can outpace demand.

• Whether the game has meaningful content beyond earning incentives.

• How easily purchased assets can be sold or withdrawn.

• Whether they can afford to lose the money they commit.

As Warwick suggests, the model could increasingly resemble sports betting or prediction markets. Players who dislike financial speculation may find little appeal in this direction of crypto gaming.

Is Play-to-Earn Ready for Another Comeback?

Warwick expects the next P2E wave to arrive quickly, driven by cheaper development, AI-assisted production, and the ability to launch games with aggressive financial incentives.

His prediction raises an important question for the broader blockchain gaming industry: does the future belong to games designed to last for years, or could short-lived experiences become a profitable part of the market?

The answer may involve both. Fast, experimental games could attract new users, while established projects attempt to turn that attention into lasting communities and meaningful gameplay.

For Illuvium, a renewed interest in blockchain games could create an opportunity to reach players who might otherwise overlook the project. But converting that attention into sustained engagement will depend on the quality of the experience, not simply the popularity of token rewards.

Warwick's central prediction is clear: play-to-earn could become popular again much sooner than many expect. Whether that revival produces a healthier gaming ecosystem or another cycle of speculative hype remains an open question.